Quarterly Summary - Q1 2026
The reporting period for the first quarter has now been summarized. We observed a clear shift in trend regarding how the reports were received, with the market increasingly rewarding positive surprises. Revenue growth came in weaker than expected, while earnings demonstrated greater stability. Below is a summary of the quarter – the figures, the winners, the losers, and the adjustments to full-year estimates.
The summary is based on 301 companies that have received at least 8 estimates on pinpointestimates.com.
Growth Lost Momentum
The average revenue growth in Q1 landed at +0.6%, down from +1.7% in the previous quarter.
At the same time, it should again be noted that the comparison quarter had relatively high growth on an aggregate level (+4.2%), resulting in tougher comparable figures. In the upcoming reporting period (the Q2 reports), the comparables will be significantly weaker (+0.6%).
The outcome came in below expectations of +2.8%. This means that growth has now missed consensus for five consecutive quarters.
Earnings Continue to Show Strength
For the third consecutive quarter, earnings increased more than revenue, demonstrating that cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements continue to yield a clear effect.
Earnings increased by an average of +4.1%, in line with expectations of +4.2%.
Regarding earnings development, significantly weaker comparable figures also await in the next reporting period, as earnings on an aggregate level actually decreased during the previous Q2 (-2.7%).
Revenue vs. Consensus
The majority of companies (65%) reported in line with expectations (a deviation of less than 5% from consensus). 13% outperformed forecasts, while 23% came in lower than expected.
The pattern remains unchanged compared to previous quarters – more companies are missing rather than beating expectations.
Earnings vs. Consensus
Earnings tend to fluctuate more than revenue, and the dispersion was wider this quarter as well. 33% of the companies exceeded expectations, which is in line with historical levels. 20% reported in line with consensus, while approximately 46% missed expectations.
Outcome vs. Consensus by Company Size
When breaking down the outcome by company size, it is clear that the smallest companies had a harder time living up to expectations. Only 27% of companies with a market cap under SEK 2 billion beat earnings estimates. The corresponding figure is 33% for companies between SEK 2–10 billion, and 39% for companies over SEK 10 billion.
Reporting Winners of the Quarter
Company | Stock Price Reaction | Beat/miss Revenue | Beat/miss Earnings | |
1. | Hanza | +26,0% | +8,7% | +11,4% |
2. | Kambi | +23,9% | +3,9% | +24,0% |
3. | C-Rad | +23,0% | -3,2% | +5,6% |
4. | Cheffelo | +20,9% | +29,3% | +24% |
5. | Ependion | +18,1% | +1,2% | +7,1% |
Reporting Losers of the Quarter
Company | Stock Price Reaction | Beat/miss Revenue | Beat/miss Earnings | |
1. | EQL Pharma | -42,4% | +0,3% | -72,8% |
2. | 4C Group | -41,9% | -40,4% | N/A (miss) |
3. | Nelly | -41,0% | -12,7% | -74,0% |
4. | Tomra | -25,6% | 0,0% | -83,9% |
5. | Green Landscaping | -23,6% | +4,9% | -56,9% |
Shift in Trend for Post-Report Reactions
During the quarter, we witnessed a clear shift in trend. Positive surprises were rewarded to a greater extent, while negative surprises were not penalized as severely as in previous quarters.
Companies that beat expectations rose by an average of +4.1% on the report day, while companies that missed fell -3.6%.
Following several quarters of escalating negative reactions to reports, it can be concluded that the market's interpretation is now significantly more positive, with positive surprises being increasingly rewarded.
Profit Warnings
During the first quarter, the number of profit warnings and upward revisions was slightly lower, but roughly in line with the previous year. Typically, more guidance adjustments and preliminary figures occur in the upcoming reporting periods, but so far, we see no dramatic difference compared to the past.
Growth Expectations 2026
For the full year 2026, growth is expected across all company sizes, but expectations have been adjusted downward following the quarter.
Small and mid-sized companies (up to SEK 10 billion in market cap) are expected to grow by just over +7%, while large-cap companies are projected to grow by +4.7%.
In a couple of months, a reporting period awaits where many companies will face weaker comparable figures, while exporting companies will likely experience less currency headwind. Following several reporting periods with successively downward-revised expectations, it remains to be seen whether companies can deliver growth according to expectations going forward, or if expectations will be revised downward once again.
Visit Pinpoint to stay updated on expectations for your favorite companies ahead of the upcoming quarterly and full-year reports!
