Equity Insight by Pinpoint - CDON

CDON Group is one of the leading marketplace players in the Nordics, with the two platforms CDON and Fyndiq. Together, the platforms connect more than 2,000 merchants with over 3 million Nordic end consumers. In recent years, the company has undergone an extensive transformation, focusing on scaling down its traditional retail operations and strengthening its marketplace model in order to create a more scalable business model.

CDON Group was originally listed on Nasdaq Stockholm as early as 2010, but following changes within the group and the spin-off from Qliro Group, CDON was reintroduced as an independent listed company on Nasdaq First North in 2020. In 2023, CDON strengthened its position in the marketplace space through the acquisition of Fyndiq.

Today, CDON Group is listed on First North under the ticker $CDON and has a market capitalization of approximately SEK 620 million. With a clearer marketplace strategy and several new growth initiatives, the company is targeting EBITDA of SEK 100 million in 2027. Is CDON Group now ready to realize its potential?

Business model

CDON Group now operates a pure-play marketplace model connecting third-party merchants with Nordic consumers. Having previously sold its own products (1P), the company has deliberately phased out this part of the business to instead focus entirely on operating a platform for third-party merchants (3P).

Unlike the previous 1P model, where the company generated revenue from the difference between the purchase and selling price, today's business model is based on several revenue streams:

By operating as a pure-play platform for third-party merchants, CDON no longer needs to hold inventory or bear the same inventory risk, reducing its capital requirements. The business model also has clearer network effects: more merchants lead to a better offering, which attracts more customers and, in turn, more merchants.

Since the cost of handling additional transactions is limited, margins can improve as volumes on the platform (GMV) grow. Investments in recent years have therefore focused on integrating CDON and Fyndiq onto a common technology platform, improving the quality of the merchant base and creating the conditions for profitable growth through higher volumes.

Sales mix and segments

CDON focuses on established brands within categories including consumer electronics, home & garden, sports and leisure. The platform primarily targets consumers looking for quality products from well-known brands and is characterized by a higher average order value.

Fyndiq primarily targets so-called "non-brand" products and trending products on social media, with a lower average order value. The merchant base consists largely of international players, particularly from Asia.

The segments therefore complement each other, with CDON having a stronger position within established brands, while Fyndiq offers a broader, value-oriented assortment with higher margin potential. Both segments differentiate themselves from the global giants through the "Nordic trust" that underpins both marketplaces. This means they offer the global assortment with a locally adapted experience, clear consumer rights and low customer risk when making a purchase.

As the graph above shows, the transition from 1P to 3P has significantly changed the group's financial profile. The shift from direct sales to third-party sales at CDON has caused the group's consolidated net revenue to decline, while the share of third-party sales has increased gradually.

The shift towards third-party sales has simultaneously strengthened the group's take rate (gross profit as a percentage of GMV), which increased from 13.4% in 2022 to 19.2% over the past year. Fyndiq's product mix results in a higher take rate than CDON, contributing positively to the group's overall take rate.

Financials

CDON's financial development since its listing can be divided into three phases: the decline of the previous CDON model, the transformation through the acquisition of Fyndiq, and the transition towards a pure-play marketplace model.

When CDON was listed in 2020, the company was still strongly characterized by the traditional e-commerce model, where a significant share of sales came from its own retail operations (1P). At the time of the listing, the company had revenue of approximately SEK 800 million and positive EBITDA.

Performance subsequently weakened as the e-commerce market normalized following the pandemic, competition increased and the company's own retail operations came under pressure from lower margins. During 2021 and 2022, revenue declined while profitability weakened.

In 2023, CDON acquired Fyndiq, contributing to higher GMV, net revenue and profitability. The transaction was primarily financed through a directed share issue in which Fyndiq's previous owners received shares in CDON. Following the transaction, Fyndiq's shareholders owned approximately 40% of the shares in the new CDON Group.

As a listed company, CDON has carried out several share issues, and the total number of shares has increased from 6 million to 11.4 million. Following the completion of the "back-to-basics" phase from 2023 to 2025, CDON carried out a directed share issue in the autumn of 2025 to finance new growth initiatives.

The extensive transformation has focused on reducing the fixed cost base. At the same time, several of the company's growth initiatives entail higher costs. To understand the underlying fixed cost structure, the company's operational run-rate can be analyzed, which excludes marketing costs as well as depreciation and amortization.

As a result of this work, the fixed cost base has been reduced from more than SEK 290 million to approximately SEK 183 million on an annualized basis. The difference between the operational run-rate and reported operating expenses mainly consists of investments in marketing, recurring goodwill amortization and one-off items.

Marketing expenses have increased as a share of GMV as a result of a changed traffic mix with a higher proportion of paid traffic. Depreciation and amortization include a recurring goodwill amortization of SEK 16.7 million per quarter related to the acquisition of Fyndiq, as well as larger one-off impairments of intangible assets. One example is the SEK 17.9 million charge to earnings in the fourth quarter of 2024 following the migration to a common technology platform, which resulted in an impairment of the value of CDON's previous technology assets.

At the same time as the underlying cost base has declined, total sales volume on the platform (GMV, gross merchandise value) has increased in recent years. On an annualized basis, GMV amounts to SEK 2,041 million, which is 13% higher than a year ago. Following the addition of Fyndiq, the consolidation of the technology platforms and the reduction in headcount, the company handles significantly more orders despite lower operating costs. The company highlights that the platform has the capacity to handle significantly more orders without any major increase in the current cost base. This illustrates the scalability of the business and means that the path towards improved earnings primarily runs through continued growth.

Growth initiatives

CDON Group aims to reach approximately SEK 100 million in EBITDA in 2027. To achieve this, the company is pursuing four strategic initiatives aimed at accelerating growth and strengthening profitability.

Today, the company's revenue is primarily generated through commissions on sales via the platforms. However, large international marketplaces have increasingly built significant revenue streams from advertising and marketing services.

Through retail media, merchants and brands can pay for increased visibility on the platforms. Since the infrastructure is already in place, margins are very high, meaning that a large share of new revenue can be converted into profit.

CDON has begun rolling out retail media, and the initiative is still at an early stage.

Historically, CDON has had its strongest position in the Swedish market, but the company believes there is potential to grow faster in Norway, Finland and Denmark.

The strategy is based on onboarding more merchants that already have cross-border sales, thereby expanding the offering across more Nordic markets.

The goal is to grow faster than the Nordic e-commerce market as a whole and thereby gain market share.

CDON has strong brand awareness in the Nordic market, but many people still associate the brand with its previous operations, when CDON was, among other things, a major player in CDs and DVDs.

An important initiative is therefore to modernize the brand and increase awareness of today's marketplace offering, which has a significantly broader assortment.

At the beginning of 2026, the company increased its technical headcount. The aim is to enable faster development and launch of improvements that strengthen the customer experience.

The investments result in higher operating costs in the short term, but are intended to create better conditions for long-term growth through a stronger technology platform.

The four growth initiatives are reportedly developing according to plan, but are negatively impacting earnings in the short term as costs are incurred immediately while revenue comes with a time lag. The retail media infrastructure has been implemented on CDON and has entered live testing on Fyndiq. The company expects the initiative to contribute to a higher take rate over time, but the financial impact has so far been limited. The Nordic expansion is also continuing according to plan. The share of GMV generated in Nordic markets outside Sweden increased to 31% in 2026, compared with 28% the previous year.

Ownership structure

CDON has a relatively concentrated ownership structure with several international funds.

The largest shareholder is US-based Nantahala Capital Management, with just over 21% of the capital and votes. This is followed by Kanen Wealth Management with just under 15% and Swedish Rite Ventures with just over 10%. CEO Fredrik Norberg is also among the company's largest shareholders, with a holding corresponding to just over 4% of the shares, worth approximately SEK 25 million.

Estimates & valuation

2025 is described by CDON as a successful year of transformation. The company delivered a significant improvement in earnings, with EBITDA reaching SEK 30.6 million, up from SEK 4.5 million, while operating profit* amounted to SEK 11.6 million. During the third quarter, the company completed the 2.5-year "back-to-basics" phase, which aimed to build a strong foundation for profitability and future growth.

In the autumn of 2025, the group carried out a directed share issue that raised SEK 45 million to finance the four growth initiatives. 2026 is described as an investment year, and so far the increased investments have resulted in higher growth while weighing on earnings. Year-to-date, GMV has increased by 14%. The group's take rate has simultaneously decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 18.3%, which according to the company is a deliberate effect of having removed high-volume but low-quality merchant accounts during 2025 in favor of categories with better long-term potential, such as consumer electronics and mobility. The measure results in a lower take rate in the short term, but aims to create a more attractive and profitable customer base over time.

EBITDA for H1 amounted to negative SEK 10 million, compared with SEK 0.6 million in the same period of the previous year. The second half of the year is expected to be stronger, but in line with the company's communication, 2026 is expected to be an investment year, resulting in lower earnings.

Next year, however, the growth initiatives are expected to bear fruit, which should also strengthen profitability. Pinpoint consensus currently stands at SEK 46 million for 2027, below the company's target of SEK 100 million in EBITDA. This means that market expectations are below the company's own target, creating significant potential upside to estimates if the company succeeds fully with its growth initiatives.

*Adjusted for goodwill amortization related to the acquisition of Fyndiq.

*EBITDA based on Pinpoint consensus for 2026 and 2027. Enterprise value of SEK 646 million (as of August 18, 2026), including estimated net debt of SEK 28 million at the end of Q2.

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